Weekly Paid Newsletter 10/17/2021
Bitcoin to $60,000, mission accomplished. Is it the new gold?. Asymmetric Portfolio +24.36% YTD.
More and more convinced of the randomness of the markets, and this week is proof of that. After a sluggish Monday and Tuesday for the markets, we have Thursday's S&P500 had its biggest rise for over half a year. And no, don't think that this week has been different, highs are still being reported in the CPI (+0.4% Sept, the last time we saw 4 consecutive increases was in 2008), or in the US Treasury Yields (for example, the US Treasure 5-Year Breakeven inflation rate hits 2.753%, highest since April 2005). If we compare the Case-Shiller Home Price to CPI Ratio (US), we see that we have already surpassed the Housing Bubble of 2008, and the curve has steepened sharply this past year.
We firmly believe that the randomness of the markets is the only and most valuable conclusion we can draw this week. Hence:
the random walk theory in the markets is corroborated, which states that any change or evolution is not measurable and estimable and therefore the price cannot be estimated by its past …