Incredible how the Fed's speech on the economy has gone from a forced landing in the markets to a very soft landing. Just a few months ago, it seemed like the end of the world, and investors were starting to leave the market, but now we're starting to see that it's just a correction.

We must not forget that most investors have very simple first-level thinking. They only see an absolute number in their bank account and form an idea of the economy, but the economy is much more.

We need to know the difference between official and real inflation:

• Official inflation: it's an absolute number known as the CPI. This data is carefully modified and doesn't tell us, in any case, the loss of purchasing power we have. This number is used for many contracts such as inflation-linked bonds or some fixed income and gives the worker and saver a false sense of peace when they are actually losing money.

  

• Real inflation: defined as the true loss of purchasing power we suffer in our pockets. Mindful that each person may have their own unique inflation basket, we believe as a proxy “guestimate” that real inflation is at least twice official inflation. Based on our view that 1) nominal rates will increase, but not much, and 2) real inflation is likely to remain very high.

So when we see that the markets seem to be recovering in an amazing way, it may not be so much when we take into account the above.

Many people, when they really understand this, understand at the same time the growth of Bitcoin and stop speculating that it's a bubble, but a store of value in the long term against real inflation.

Key moment.

We are not followers of technical indicators, in fact, we believe that 99% of them are very little useful. However, we do believe that markets are seasonal, and if we use some of them in the long term, we can make a lot of money.

In fact, according to one of the few technical indicators we use in the long term. We should have sold Bitcoin on December 6th at 50.5k and should have bought it back on January 15th at 20.5k, doesn't seem like a bad long-term strategy, does it?

This week it happened that this materialized through the golden cross. But what is this, it's a cross of the 50-day average with the 200-day average. Let's say it would be a kind of confirmation of the trend we indicated on January 15th. In fact, on StockCharts, when you look for a chart, it's the trend that comes up by default (for a reason).

Therefore, when we remained between both, it seemed that Bitcoin could either retest 20k or shoot up to 25k. It seems today that it's closer to the second than the first.

But as we always tell you, it's indispensable to follow a system. If this trend changes, which of course can change, we will notify you and take the appropriate measures. If we need to sell, we will sell, and if we need to hold, we will. Very similar to the new investment guidelines we took a couple of weeks ago with other indices.

It is a duty for all of us to try to find the lowest number of risks for everyone, both in our lives and in our portfolios. With strategies like this, we make sure to be well covered against many rare or black swan cases that may occur.

Now, let's take a closer look at our portfolio.