Important: Forecast for the Year 2024
What the press doesn't want to tell us.
The United States has managed to smoothly touch down on the economic landscape, and despite the apocalyptic predictions, it seems they have achieved it. Or perhaps, are we simply wishing it to be so?
Since late 2022, when both Bitcoin and the markets hit rock bottom in October and November, we already warned that the year 2023 wouldn't be as gloomy as projected. Despite the media bombarding us with the image of a disastrous recession, it's crucial to keep in mind that forceful newspaper headlines often significantly differ from reality.
Indeed, if you're considering launching a new venture, my suggestion is to begin by establishing an inverse news index fund. Setting up an ETF with these characteristics could greatly benefit investors and be able to identify moments of maximum FOMO and heightened unease.
The Employment Conundrum
As we've always said, entering a recession isn't just a matter of the Fed ceasing to stimulate the economy (quantitative tightening and rate hikes). Other considerations must also come into play.
Perhaps the most important factor is job loss. When we truly start witnessing job losses, that's when we'll be truly on the edge of the precipice.
Historically, if we observe what we're referring to, we can see that while correlation doesn't imply causation, it does seem to hold some sense.
2000, 2008, 2020... the pattern remains the same. First, interest rates are raised, and then unemployment arrives. Hence, our insistence on having a portfolio that can protect against potential black swan events. Having a strategy that shields us from such events can lead to significant profits, allowing us to buy when no one else can, during times of illiquidity and fire-sale prices.
This could be the starting point for building a substantial family legacy in most cases.
You only need to be right once. If you had OTM puts and calls in 2008 or 2020, and you bought indices after taking profits, you didn't have to work again. The market is brimming with opportunities like these.
This newsletter is here to remind you that if you've lost faith, it might be because you're much closer to achieving your goals.