Is Now a Good Time to Buy Bitcoin?
Bitcoin: The Long Game That Rewards Patience
Lately, the question I’ve been asked most often is whether this is a good time to buy Bitcoin. First of all, let me remind you: I’m no guru. I don’t believe in short-term speculation; I only believe in long-term investing.
A key question I ask myself when considering any investment is: Would I want to own this asset 20 years from now? If the answer is “yes,” I buy.
It’s a simple, almost absurd thesis, but it works—far better, in fact, than overanalyzing, measuring, or comparing metrics.
When it comes to Bitcoin, there’s a phenomenon at play called the Lindy Effect, and its impact here is monumental. As Bitcoin’s adoption grows, that “yes” we just mentioned gets stronger and stronger. The hash rate (a measure of mining difficulty) increases, making the network significantly more secure.
So, is now a good time to buy? Honestly, it’s not the best time. I still remember telling people just a few months ago to buy at $16K—when you could acquire multiple Bitcoins with modest savings. Sadly, those prices are gone forever. We will likely never see Bitcoin at those levels again.
Will Bitcoin’s price drop from here? Probably. Historically, during any bull cycle, it’s normal and healthy to see a couple of 35% corrections. The question is whether that drop will happen now—taking Bitcoin to $60K—or months later when it’s at $160K.
Since neither you, nor I, nor anyone knows for certain, I believe now is a good time to buy—or at least to dollar-cost average (DCA).
That said, here’s one thing I want to emphasize: “DO NOT EXPECT THIS INVESTMENT TO BE PROFITABLE FOR THE NEXT 4–6 YEARS.” That’s the only downside to investing in Bitcoin right now.
However, let’s crunch some numbers and explore the scenarios Michael Saylor envisions 20 years from now:
Let’s Start With a Target Price of $3M:
Scenario 1: You invested $1,000 at $16,000 per Bitcoin.
This would get you 0.0625 BTC, which in the “bear case” would be worth $187,500 in 20 years.Scenario 2: You invested $1,000 at $90,000 per Bitcoin.
This would get you 0.0111 BTC, which in the same “bear case” would be worth $33,333 in 20 years.
The difference between the two is substantial. But even in Scenario 2, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is staggering.
What Other Asset Offers 19% Annual Returns Over 20 Years?
Now, imagine being a real estate investor. You’re familiar with all the headaches that come with it: taxes, unexpected expenses, repairs, maintenance, and so on.
With Bitcoin, your biggest cost might be buying a hardware wallet like a Ledger for $100. Or, if you’re particularly frugal, you could even use a free solution like Trust Wallet and forget about it.
Over time, I’ve realized it’s much simpler to ask myself one question: Will I still want to own this asset 20 years from now? If the answer is “yes,” I buy.
And keep in mind, the scenario we’ve explored is the bear case. What happens in an average scenario?
A 28% Annual Return: Enough Said.
Not holding Bitcoin in your portfolio at this point is simply irrational.
Some might argue, “If it’s so cyclical, why not buy now, sell in a year, and buy back in two years?”
That’s a fair strategy—one that made more sense in the past than it does now. Back then, institutions weren’t involved, and people didn’t fully grasp Bitcoin’s potential.
Today, it’s different. Major holders are unlikely to sell, and the chances of a significant drop may not be as high as people expect.
Michael Saylor isn’t selling. Institutions adding Bitcoin through ETFs likely won’t sell either. And there are countless other long-term holders contributing to this dynamic.