Everyone’s still playing Fed Watch 2025.
Every CPI release gets dissected like it’s gospel. Every Powell pause sparks a wave of hopium. Meanwhile, something real just happened—and most people missed it.
In April 2025, the U.S. Treasury posted the second-largest monthly budget surplus in history:
$639 billion in receipts. $499 billion in spending. Surplus: $139 billion.
This didn’t happen in 2009 with stimulus checks. It didn’t happen in 2020 with pandemic chaos. It happened in a year where the narrative was “fiscal cliff,” “unsustainable debt,” and “America’s running out of rope.”
And yet… here we are.
Customs duties—yes, tariffs—hit an all-time record: $16.3 billion in April alone.
Income taxes surged. Capital gains came in hot. The market’s been strong, and Uncle Sam is cashing in.
What does this mean?
First, it crushes the short-term narrative that the U.S. is spiraling out of fiscal control. Not forever, but enough to push out the timing on any real crisis. That’s a big deal if you’re running trades based on that collapse arriving tomorrow.
Second, it gives breathing room to policymakers. No one wants to admit it, but if revenues keep surprising to the upside, rate cuts become less likely, not more. The Fed doesn’t have to bail out the system if the system’s running hotter than expected.
Third, and most importantly: this creates asymmetric positioning opportunities.
Think about it. The market was priced for deficit panic. Bond yields were climbing. Risk premia were widening. Recession chatter was everywhere. And then—boom—$139 billion in surplus.
It doesn’t matter if it’s durable. It matters that it was unexpected.
That’s how you generate edge.
Not by predicting the future. But by identifying when the market is misaligned with present reality.
This is that moment.
So what are we seeing?
The dollar isn’t collapsing. In fact, it’s holding up shockingly well given the rate backdrop. Treasuries are stabilizing. The “everything bubble” is morphing into a very selective re-rating. Volatility is dirt cheap again.
If you’re positioned for disaster, you’re bleeding slowly. If you’re positioned for euphoria, you’re stretched thin. But if you’re positioned for dislocation, you’re sitting in the sweet spot.
This is where we thrive.
We're not chasing mega caps at all-time highs. We're not piling into commercial real estate "bargains" with 7% cap rates and 9% financing. We're definitely not buying narratives. We're buying dislocations.
And right now, the biggest dislocation is in expectations.
Everyone expects fiscal chaos.
Everyone expects a hard landing.
Everyone expects rate cuts, dollar collapse, stagflation.
But the data—at least this month—says something very different.
Is it sustainable? No. Probably not.
But is it enough to shift the game for a quarter? Absolutely.
This is what most investors miss.
They think in absolutes. Bull vs. bear. Doom vs. boom.
But markets don’t pay you for absolutes. They pay you for surprise. For divergence. For being early to what others are ignoring.
That’s why we’re acting now.