Our Target Price for Bitcoin in October 2025
Bitcoin, in the same period, has gained +75%
All the front pages of the major economic newspapers believed that this year, 2023, was going to be very negative. Everything was going to fall, and it was better to leave your money in fixed deposits.
At that time, Bitcoin was hovering around $16,000 per coin, and we told you that right at those moments, having fixed deposits was the worst thing you could have.
Since that precise moment (November 2022):
S&P 500 +18%
But if there's one thing we have to highlight, it's that Bitcoin, in the same period, has gained +75%... All those who were queuing for their guaranteed fixed income at 3-4% have missed out on significant returns.
Considering that in many institutions, the minimum amount to deposit in a fixed-term account is $100k, they have missed out on earning over $70k...
We have often mentioned that investing is 80% psychology and 20% the asset you invest in. As we analyzed in November, Bitcoin fulfilled both aspects:
Psychology: People didn't want to invest because it had dropped almost 80% from its peak, and there was panic with people saying, "I'd better wait."
Investment: It is a highly cyclical asset that was close to reaching its lows. This cycle has repeated three times, as we also explained.
Each return to the previous cycle takes 4 years, and historically, the minimum has been marked in the southwest quadrant.
But don't think that everything that has happened since then has been easy. In the course of this year, we have seen multiple exchanges collapse, the SEC banning Binance from operating in the US, and SVB falling along with many technology companies and regional banks.
But little by little, it seems that we are seeing the light at the end of the tunnel (or maybe not). A couple of weeks ago, the world's leading hedge funds wanted to list Bitcoin ETFs. This makes us think because if it were just one hedge fund requesting the ETF, we could assume it might be unlucky. But when we're talking about five of the largest asset managers in the world doing it in the same week, we believe they know something we don't.
All these ETFs would be spot-based, which means they would directly buy Bitcoin instead of futures contracts.
This is tremendously bullish for these types of assets.
Many people have told us they want to sell with gains of 50-70%. They have also asked us why we don't cash in a portion of our profits, to which we respond that our target value is much higher, as we'll discuss below.