The Only Three Asset Types That Will Matter After AI
Your Diversified Portfolio Is a Lie and You Know It
Everyone’s talking about the AI tsunami.
Some are excited. Others are terrified. Most are in denial. But almost no one is adjusting their portfolio. And that’s what separates those who merely survive from those who will be ready to strike when the tide recedes.
We don’t know how long the shock will last. Or how deep it will go. But the shape of what’s coming is becoming clear. If you’re betting your future on high-margin knowledge work, software businesses with no network effect, or labor arbitrage models, you’re building sandcastles in front of an unstoppable tide.
AI will compress margins. First in white-collar work. Then in trades. Eventually, everywhere.
And yet, some will win. Some will thrive. Because disruption isn’t destruction it’s transfer. Power, wealth, advantage… they don’t disappear. They change hands.
That’s why there’s only one realistic answer: an asymmetric portfolio. One that assumes the worst but positions for the best. One that doesn’t just survive a Black Swan but uses chaos as leverage.
This can’t be done through conventional diversification. Nor through fragile tech dreams without structural defenses. It takes a system that’s simple, robust, with skin in the game.
That system only has three boxes. Nothing more.
Core Assets: The things you’ll never sell. What you know will matter in 10 years no matter what happens. For us, that means Bitcoin, carefully selected real estate, and we’re currently considering land. Private equity with structural moats that remain relevant and we’re evaluating some opportunities here too. This is what gives you stability even if everything else wobbles.
Flow Engines: What pays your bills monthly. What keeps the system alive without touching the Core. This only includes real, resilient cashflow assets: dividend cows, private lending, option premiums, real estate that pays today not in some vague future.
Optionality: Liquidity. Available margin. Dry powder. Not to feel safe, but to be dangerous. To strike when others are forced to sell. To buy quality assets when they’re on the floor and no one has courage or cash.
Most people try to hedge with instruments: swaps, puts, calls. That works if you have timing. But almost no one does. And worse you can’t buy fire insurance when the house is already burning. We believe that a small part of the portfolio can be placed in far out-of-the-money options as an extreme form of coverage. But only if you’re willing to lose that capital and have a trusted black circle to work it properly.
An asymmetric investor builds the insurance into the system. From the ground up.
A cashflow machine that keeps you liquid and unleveraged when others are trapped. Core assets you never touch. Capital ready to deploy.
And above all, zero fragile bets.
We don’t hold pre-revenue startups that can be cloned by a foundation model in a weekend. We avoid software without defenses. We stay out of sectors about to be flooded with displaced talent.
Because when the automated MBA loses their job, they won’t sit still. They’ll start a remodeling business. They’ll compete with you. And your margins will evaporate.
We play the opposite game.
We buy assets that benefit from chaos. Businesses with operating leverage and real tailwinds. Infrastructure the new AI world will require compute, energy, low latency.
And we keep it radically simple. Skin in the game. Antifragile cashflow. Optionality by design.
This isn’t about being right. It’s about not blowing up.
It’s about building a system that stays functional while the world panics.
Here’s what I’m doing right now, concretely: